以浙江西门岛上林龄21和66 a的秋茄树（Kandelia obovata Sheue, H. Y. Liu et J. W. H. Yong ）人工林为研究对象，基于野外样方调查结果，对其种群结构、生命过程、生存力、动态变化进行分析，并进行种群个体数时间序列预测，以期为中国红树成功引种北缘秋茄树种群有效保护与恢复及红树北扩引种提供基础资料和科学依据。结果表明：21和66 a秋茄树人工林种群的高度结构相似，株高主要集中在1.0～1.5 m，平均株高分别为1.31和1.37 m。但2个种群的密度和径级〔根据基径（D）划分〕结构差异明显，21 a种群密度（3.11 m^-2）约是66 a种群的4倍，前者径级以Ⅱ级（2 cm≤D＜6 cm）为主，后者以Ⅲ级（6 cm≤D＜10 cm）至Ⅵ级（18 cm≤D＜22 cm）为主。2个种群的存活曲线均符合Deevey-Ⅱ型，存活个体数随径级增大呈下降趋势，各径级死亡率均偏高，且66 a种群的死亡率明显小于21 a种群。2个种群的生存率和死亡密度随径级增大而下降，累计死亡率和危险率随径级增大而上升，且66 a种群的这4个指标均从径级Ⅴ级（14 cm≤D＜18 cm）开始趋于稳定。2个种群的动态指数变化很大，忽略外部干扰时的种群动态指数（Vpi）和考虑外部随机干扰时的种群动态指数（Vpi′）均大于0，总体呈增长趋势，种群对外部随机干扰所承担的风险概率极大值（Pmax）分别为16.67%和9.09%，表明这2个种群对外界环境较为敏感。在未来4和6个径级时间后，21 a种群各径级个体数均增加；在未来2、4、6、8、10个径级时间后，66 a种群Ⅴ级至Ⅺ级（38 cm≤D＜42 cm）个体数整体上逐渐增多，Ⅰ级（D＜2 cm）至Ⅳ级（10 cm≤D＜14 cm）个体数减少，种群增长难以长期维持。21 a种群的幼苗、小树和66 a种群的小树呈聚集分布，而21 a种群的大树和66 a种群的大树、老树呈均匀分布。基于上述研究结果，建议加强对浙江西门岛秋茄树人工林种群的保护与管理，如对21 a种群进行幼苗间伐并减少人类活动干扰，对66 a种群进行幼苗补种，从而促进种群的更新和良性发展。

Taking Kandelia obovata Sheue, H. Y. Liu et J. W. H. Yong  plantations at the stand ages of 21 and 66 a in Ximen Island of Zhejiang Province as research objects, their population structure, life process, survivability, and dynamic variations were analyzed based on field plot survey results, and time sequence prediction for number of individuals of populations was conducted to provide fundamental data and scientific basis for effective conservation and restoration of K. obovata populations in northern margin of artificial mangrove forest in China and for northward expansion of mangroves. The results show that the height structures of the 21 and 66 a populations of K. obovata plantations are similar, with plant heights mainly concentrated in 1.0-1.5 m, and their average heights are 1.31 and 1.37 m, respectively. However, the density and diameter class ［division on basal diameter (D)］ structure of the two populations are obviously different, the density of the 21 a population (3.11 m^-2) is approximately four times that of the 66 a population, the former is dominated by diameter class Ⅱ (2 cm≤D<6 cm), while the latter is dominated by class Ⅲ (6 cm≤D<10 cm) to class Ⅵ (18 cm≤D< 22 cm). The survival curves of both populations conform. to the DeeveyⅡ type, the number of surviving individuals shows a tendency to decrease as the diameter class increases, the mortality rate of each diameter class is relatively high, and the mortality rate of the 66 a population is evidently lower than that of the 21 a population. The survival rate and mortality density of both populations decrease with the increase of diameter class, the cumulative mortality rate and hazard rate increase with the increase of diameter class, and the four indexes of the 66 a population tend to be stable starting from diameter class Ⅴ (14 cm≤D<18 cm). The dynamic indexes of the two populations vary greatly, the population dynamic index ignoring external disturbances (Vpi) and population dynamic index considering external random disturbance (Vpi′) are both greater than 0, indicating an overall growth tendency, and the maximum value of risk probability of the population to external random disturbance (Pmax) are 16.67% and 9.09%, respectively, indicating that the two populations are relatively sensitive to external environment. After next 4 and 6 diameter class time, the number of individuals in each diameter class of the 21 a population increases; after next 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 diameter class time, the numbers of individuals in class Ⅴ to class Ⅺ (38 cm≤D<42 cm) of the 66 a population generally increase, while the numbers of individuals in class Ⅰ (D<2 cm) to class Ⅳ (10 cm≤D<14 cm) decrease, indicating that population growth would be difficult to maintain in the long term. Seedlings and small trees of the 21 a population and small trees of the 66 a population show clumped distribution, while big trees of the 21 a population and big and old trees of the 66 a population show uniform. distribution. Based on the above research results, it is recommended to strengthen the conservation and management of K. obovata plantations in Ximen Island of Zhejiang Province, such as seedling thinning for the 21 a population and reduce human disturbance, and supplement seedlings for the 66 a population, thereby promoting population regeneration and healthy development.